Insurance risk is the risk that future insurance claims and benefits cannot be covered by premium and / or investment income, or that insurance liabilities are not sufficient, because future expenses, claims and benefits differ from the assumptions used in determining the best estimate liability. Insurance risk manifests itself in both the Non-life and the Life portfolio. The Non-life portfolio covers the property and casualty, disability and healthcare sectors. The Life portfolio consists of individual life and funeral and pensions business.

Risk-mitigating measures are used to reduce and contain the volatility of results or to decrease the possible negative impact on value as an alternative for the capital requirement. Proper pricing, underwriting, reinsurance, claims management, and diversification are the main risk mitigating actions for insurance risks. By offering a range of different insurance products, with various product benefits and contract lengths, and across Life, Disability and Health and P&C insurance risk, a.s.r. reduces the likelihood that a single risk event will have a material impact on a.s.r.’s financial condition.

The solvency buffer is held by a.s.r. to cover the risk that claims may exceed the available insurance provisions and to ensure its solidity. The solvency position of a.s.r. is determined and continuously monitored in order to assess if a.s.r. meets the regulatory requirements.

Aegon life and Aegon spaarkas use a Partial Internal Model (PIM) to calculate the solvency position. The PIM contains Internal Models for (i) mortality risk and (ii) longevity risk. For the other risks, the Solvency II standard formula is applied. a.s.r. life, a.s.r. non-life and a.s.r. health use the Solvency II standard formula (SF) to calculate the solvency position.

The Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) for each insurance risk is determined as the change in own funds caused by a predetermined shock which is calibrated to a 1-in-200-year event. The basis for these calculations are the Solvency II technical provisions which are calculated as the sum of a best estimate and a risk margin.

The insurance risk arising from the insurance portfolios of a.s.r. is as follows:

The Life insurance risk decreased meanly as a result of non-economic assumption changes and portfolio developments.

The Health and Non life insurance risk increased as a result of the growth of the sum insured.

Solvency II sensitivities

a.s.r. has assessed the impact of various sensitivities on the solvency ratio. The sensitivities as at 31 December 2024 and 2023, expressed as impact on the group solvency ratio (in percentage points) are as follows:

The table shows that the SCR sensitivities in 2024 are (almost) similar to the sensitivities of 2023. The impact on the ratio is the opposite if a reversed scenario is taken into account.

7.8.2.1Life Insurance risk

The Life portfolio can be divided into Individual life and Funeral and Pensions. The insurance contracts are sold primarily to retail and wholesale clients through intermediaries.

The products are sold as insurance products in cash or unit-linked contracts. With respect to products in cash, the investment risk is fully borne by the insurer whereas, in the case of unit-linked products, the majority of the investment risk is for the policyholder’s account.

The solvency capital requirement (SCR) for Life insurance risks is determined per policy for the Funeral and Life portfolio and per participant for the Pension portfolio. All shocks are applied to each policy/participant and an SCR value is only determined if applying the shock leads to a higher best estimate.

The following Life insurance risks are involved:

Mortality risk

Mortality risk is associated with (re)insurance obligations, such as endowment or term assurance policies, where a payment or payments are made in case of the policyholder’s death during the contract term. The required capital for this risk under SF is calculated as the change in own funds of a permanent increase of mortality rates by 15% for all ages and each policy. For Aegon life and Aegon spaarkas an Internal Model is used to calculate the risk factor. This contains shocks on both the level (experience) and the trend (population) of the mortality table. It projects mortality rates by age and gender.

Longevity risk

Longevity risk is associated with (re)insurance obligations where payments are made until the death of the policyholder and where a decrease in mortality rates results in higher technical provisions. The required capital for this risk under SF is calculated as the change in own funds of a permanent decrease of mortality rates by 20%. For Aegon life and Aegon spaarkas an Internal Model is used to calculate the risk factor. This contains shocks on both the level (experience) and the trend (population) of the mortality table. It projects mortality rates by age and gender.

Disability-morbidity risk

Morbidity or disability risk is associated with all types of insurance compensating or reimbursing losses (e.g. loss of income, adverse changes in the best estimate of the liabilities) caused by changes in the morbidity or disability rates. Solvency II prescribes a 35% increase in disability rates for the first year, 25% for subsequent years, combined with a decrease in recovery rates of 20%. The disability-morbidity risk is calculated on policy level by increasing the experience percentage with 35% for the first year and 25% in the second. For the IBNR reserve the shock is simplified to an average of 30% for the 2-year IBNR cashflow. Because revalidation risk is very small, no shock is modelled for this risk.

Lapse risk

Lapse risk is the risk of losses (or adverse changes in the best estimate of the liabilities) due to an unanticipated (higher or lower) rate of policy lapses, terminations, changes to paid-up status (cessation of premium payment) and surrenders.

Lapse risk arises from economic losses due to policyholder behaviour deviating from expectations. Insurance contracts typically provide policyholders with a variety of options that they may or may not exercise. Lapse risk is the risk that actual policyholder behaviour deviates from the assumptions built into the reserve calculations. This includes assumptions about lapses, withdrawals, premium payment levels, allocation of funds, and the utilisation of possible options in the products.

In general, a lapse shock is only applied if a Solvency II lapse event is actually considered possible under the conditions of the insurance contract. For instance a paid-up policy that cannot be surrendered is not taken into account.

The effect of the lapse risk is equal to the highest result of a permanent increase in lapse rates of 50%, a permanent decrease in lapse rates of 50% or a mass lapse event (an instant lapse event of 40% of all policies). For the mass lapse event, the lapse risk is calculated as the maximum on policy level of a mass surrender or a mass paid-up event.

Within the Individual life portfolio there is a group of policies directly linked to a mortgage loan ('Spaarhypotheken'). In case the mortgage loan is not provided by a.s.r., but by another party, which is the case for most of these policies, the interest that a.s.r. reimburses to the policyholder is claimed from the party that has provided the mortgage loan. This cashflow of interests from the provider of the mortgage loan to a.s.r. represents an asset. The cashflow and value of this asset depends on the cashflow of the linked savings policy. Therefore, the change in this asset value due to mortality or lapse is taken into account when determining the SCR for Life insurance risks.

Prepayment risk on mortgages constitutes an important component of lapse risk; it is the risk of higher or lower prepayments that anticipated, including early redemption rates, thus impacting the value of the mortgage portfolio. Mortgage prepayment risk is divided into two categories: parameter risk (lapse persistency mortgages), which describes financial losses due to adverse misestimation of best estimate prepayment parameter, and contagion risk (lapse contagion liabilities), which describes financial losses due to contagion events causing temporary adverse deviations from best estimate prepayment behaviour.

Expense risk

A calculation is made of the effect on own funds of a permanent increase in costs used for determining the best estimate. It consists of an increase in the costs of 10% and an increase in the cost inflation of 1 percentage point per year. For investment costs only an increase of 10% applies, since it has been substantiated that increases due to inflation including a shock can be absorbed by the Best Estimate itself and asset management for external parties.

Life catastrophe risk

Catastrophe risk arises from extreme events which are not captured in the other Life insurance risks, such as pandemics. The capital requirement for this risk is calculated as a 1.5 per mille increase in mortality rates in the first projected year for (re)insurance obligations where the increase in mortality rates leads to an increase in technical provisions.

Employee benefits

a.s.r. has a number of defined benefit plans for own staff in place. These are schemes, under which staff are awarded pension benefits upon retirement, usually dependent on one or more factors such as years of service and salary. The defined benefit obligation is calculated by independent actuaries at each reporting date. Due to the acquisition of Aegon NL the ended defined benefit plan for own staff of Aegon NL was added to the defined benefit obligation per 2023.

Pension obligations are calculated using the projected unit credit method. Inherent to this method is the application of actuarial assumptions to discount rates, mortality rates and consumer price indices.

The assumptions are reviewed and updated at each reporting date based on available (market) data. The discount rate (31 December 2024: 3.51%) is based on the return (zero coupon rate) of high-quality corporate bonds (AA rating) and the cash flow pattern of the pension obligation. For SCR purposes, the IFRS value of the own pension contract is based on the IAS19 valuation methodology. The explanatory guidelines explain that the IAS19 valuation is consistent with Solvency II.

As of 1 January 2021 a defined contribution plan is in place. The accrued pensions (until 1 January 2021) will remain guaranteed at a.s.r. life and are not transferred to the defined contribution plan. The former employees of Aegon NL were added to the defined contribution plan as of 1 October 2023.

Other information

Within a.s.r. life the longevity risk is dominant and arises from group pension business and individual annuities. The longevity risk is partly offset by mortality risk that arises from the funeral portfolio and individual policies with mortality. The other main risks a.s.r. life is exposed to are expense risk and lapse risk.

The table summarises the required capital for abovementioned life insurance risks based on the standard model after application of Loss Absorbing Capacity of Technical Provisions (LAC TP). The impact of LAC TP increased in 2024 to € 165 million (2023: € 156 million).

For expense risk and lapse persistency mortgages the impact has decreased mainly due to the assumption updates. Catastrophe risk has increased mainly due to the complete modelling of product “Doen Pensioen” and new business “Doen Pensioen” and “Werknemers Pensioen”.

For the Life portfolio, the provision at year-end (provided figures are without reductions resulting from reinsurance contracts) can be broken down as follows under Solvency II:

In 2024 the technical provision increased with € 2,413 million. This was mainly caused by the development of economic parameters, which has an upward effect on the BEL of the traditional portfolio, however the growth in the unit linked portfolio is dominant. The risk margin decreased in 2024 with € 111 million, mainly due to change in the non-economic assumptions for death rates and expenses.

7.8.2.1.1Managing Life insurance risk

Life insurance risk is mitigated by pricing, underwriting policies and reinsurance.

Pricing is based on profit capacity calculations. A calculation is made of the price required to cover the insurance liabilities, expenses and risks.

Underwriting policies describe the types of risks and the extent of risk a.s.r. is willing to accept. Policyholders may be subjected to medical screening for both Individual life and Funeral insurance.

Reinsurance

Reinsurance and other risk-mitigating measures are used to reduce the volatility of results or to decrease the possible negative impact on value as an alternative to the capital requirement. Reinsurance arrangements have been set up to mitigate the effects of catastrophes on earnings.

The level of retention in different reinsurance contracts is aligned with the size and the risk profile of the underlying portfolios. This includes taking account of the cost of reinsurance on the one hand, and the risk that is retained on the other.

In order to optimise its balance sheet risks, a.s.r. entered into a reinsurance agreement with Legal and General Re in 2015. The share of Legal and General Re is on behalf of a specific buy-out portfolio. The total share of the reinsurances for a.s.r. amounts to € 114 million per 31 December 2024.

Per 31 December 2019, Aegon life entered into an indemnity swap, Sunrise, with Canada Life Reinsurance. The underlying portfolio corresponded to around € 7.5 billion of liabilities. Per 31 December 2021, Aegon life entered into a new indemnity swap, Solaris, external party is Reinsurance Group of America. The underlying portfolio amounts to approximately € 5 billion. Both agreements cover the longevity risk associated with Aegon’s policyholders, including deferred pensioners and in-payment policies of pensioners and dependents during the full run-off of these policies.

Both agreements are collateralised to mitigate any potential counterparty risk and the agreements have no impact on the services and guarantees that Aegon provides to its policyholders. At year-end 2024 € 332 million (market value € 358 million) has been posted as collateral with respect to the longevity reinsurance contract with Canada Life Reinsurance (2023: € 375 million collateral, market value € 334 million) and € 159 million (market value € 161 million) has been posted as collateral with respect to the longevity reinsurance contract with RGA (2023: € 200 million collateral, market value € 178 million).

Together, these two agreements mitigate approximately 40% of the longevity risk exposure of Aegon life. As such, these agreements strongly reduce the concentration of Aegon’s risk exposure in longevity risk and help to diversify the risk profile of Aegon life.

7.8.2.2Health insurance risk and Non-life insurance risk

7.8.2.2.1Health insurance risk

The Health insurance portfolio of a.s.r. is diverse. The portfolio can be divided into two main product types:

• SLT Health portfolio (Similar to Life Techniques) Income Protection, which can be divided into:

  • Individual Disability (Zelfstandigen)

  • Group Disability (WIA)

  • Premium waiver in case of disability (PVI)

• NSLT Health portfolio (Not Similar to Life Techniques), which can be divided into:

  • Income Protection (Sickness, and Individual and Group Accident)

  • Medical Expenses (Basic and Supplementary)

The insurance contracts are sold primarily to retail and wholesale clients through intermediaries.

The Health insurance portfolio of a.s.r. contains the following insurance risks:

• SLT Health risk

  • This risk is applicable to the SLT Health portfolio. The calculation is scenario-based, according to the standard formula.

• NSLT Health risk

  • This risk is applicable to the NSLT Health portfolio. The calculation is factor-based. The risk is calculated similarly to the Non-life insurance risk.

• Health Catastrophe risk

  • This risk is applicable to the entire Health portfolio. The calculation is scenario-based.

SLT Health Risk

Mortality risk

Mortality risk is associated with (re)insurance obligations where payments are made upon the death of the policyholder and where an increase in mortality rates results in higher technical provisions. The required capital is calculated as the change in own funds of a permanent 15% increase in mortality rates. The increase in mortality rates is applied to portfolios where payments are contingent on mortality risk. The increase in mortality rates leads to an increase of the own funds. Therefore the mortality risk is zero for the Health portfolio.

Longevity risk

Longevity risk is associated with (re)insurance obligations where payments are made until the death of the policyholder and where a decrease in mortality rates results in higher technical provisions. The required capital is calculated as the change in own funds of a permanent 20% decrease in mortality rates. The decrease in mortality rates is applied to portfolios where payments are contingent on longevity risk.

Disability-morbidity risk

Morbidity or disability risk is the main risk to the SLT Health portfolio. The scenario analysis consists of a 35% increase in disability rates for the first year, 25% for subsequent years, combined with a decrease in revalidation rates of 20%.

Expense risk

A calculation is made of the effect of a permanent increase in costs, which is used for determining the best estimate. The scenario analysis contains an increase in the costs of 10% and an increase in the cost inflation of 1 percentage point per year.

Revision risk

The revision risk is the risk that a higher benefit is caused by either inflation or a revision of the disability percentage. Benefits that are sensitive to inflation and / or an increase in the disability percentage will be increased by 4%.

Lapse risk

Lapse risk is the risk of losses (or adverse changes in the best estimate of the liabilities) due to an unanticipated (higher or lower) rate of policy lapses, terminations, changes to paid-up status (cessation of premium payment) and surrenders. The effect of the lapse risk is equal to the highest result of a permanent 50% increase in lapse rates, a permanent 50% decrease in lapse rates or a mass lapse event (40% mass lapse). For the SLT Health portfolio, the mass lapse event is dominant.

Future management action

According to the insurance conditions, a.s.r. non-life has the ability to adjust the premiums and insurance conditions group wise in the future for the disability portfolio. Therefore, the contract boundary of the disability contracts without an individual risk assessment at acceptance is equal to the contract term. For contracts with an individual risk assessment at acceptance, the contract boundary is equal to the end age, because the contracts will be tacitly renewed until the end age is reached, without repeating the risk assessment. These contracts with an individual risk assessment involve the Individual Self-employed and the Individual Employees portfolio’s. For these portfolio’s, a.s.r. non-life applies a future management action (FMA), as noted in article 23 of the Delegated Acts. The trigger, as defined in the FMA, is hit in the Income Protection Disability-Morbidity Risk (article 156 DA) scenario.

For a number of Loyalis products within the group disability portfolio, it is determined annually whether the insured amounts are indexed. For the majority of the portfolio, there is a conditional indexation based on a (discretionary) management decision, based among other things on interest result. In a financially unfavourable year, there is the possibility of not paying out indexation, which is a FMA as noted in article 23 of the Delegated Acts.

NSLT Health Risk

NSLT Premium and reserve risk

The premium risk is the risk that the premium is not adequate for the underwritten risk. The premium risk is calculated over the maximum of the expected earned premium of the next year, and the earned premium of the current year. The reserve risk is the risk that the current reserves are insufficient to cover their run-off over a 12 month time horizon.

The NSLT Premium and reserve risk can be split into the following insurance risks:

• Medical Expense

  • The premium risk is the risk that the premium is not adequate for the underwritten risk. The premium risk is calculated over the maximum of the expected earned premium of the next year, and the earned premium of the current year.

    Reserve risk is the risk that the current reserves are insufficient to cover the claims over a 12-month time horizon.

• Income Protection

  • This component is calculated for policies for which an increase in mortality rates or morbidity rates or disability rates leads to an increase in the best estimate. There are three scenarios, which are calculated for all NSLT Health and portfolios.

NSLT lapse risk

The basic and additional health insurance are compulsory insurance contracts for one year without intermediate possibility of termination and therefore lapse risk is negligible for the basic health insurance.

Health catastrophe risk

Medical Expense

A health catastrophe for the NSLT Health portfolio is an unexpected future event with a duration of one year. The risk is determined ultimo year. The amount of catastrophe risk is apparent from the number of insured and parameters for mass accident scenario and pandemic scenario that have been approved by DNB in consultation with Health Insurers Netherlands. Accident concentration is not applicable for NSLT Health. The catastrophe risk has a projection of one year (T) following from the contract boundary of one year in accordance with the Dutch Health Insurance Act. After year T the risk is ‘zero’. Catastrophe risk for a.s.r. health supplementary equals zero because these contracts have a maximum compensation for claims.

Income Protection Mass accident scenario

In this scenario, an accident takes place during a major public event. The risk is that 10% of the attendees are killed, 3.5% are permanently disabled, 16.5% are disabled for 12 months and 30% need medical attention.

Income Protection Accident concentration scenario

In this scenario, an accident takes place on site, with the most of our insured at the same location. The risk is that 10% of those present are killed, 3.5% are permanently disabled, 16.5% are disabled for 12 months and 30% need medical attention.

Income Protection Pandemic scenario

In this scenario, there is a pandemic, which causes 1% of those affected to be hospitalised and 20% to see a local practitioner.

The table summarises the required capital for abovementioned Health insurance risks based on the standard model.

The SCR for the Health Non-SLT risk differs from the sum of the amounts reported in the OTSO QRTs. This difference is caused due to a diversification benefit on group level.

For the SLT Health portfolio, the provision at year-end can be broken down as follows under Solvency II.

For the NSLT Health portfolio, the provision at year-end can be broken down as follows under Solvency II.

7.8.2.2.2Non-life insurance risk

Non-life Insurance risk can be broken down into:

• Premium and reserve risk

• Non-life catastrophe risk

• Lapse risk

Premium- and reserve risk

The premium- and reserve risk is derived at the level of a legal entity based on the standard model. The premium- and reserve risk is the risk that the premium respectively the reserve is not adequate for the underwritten risk. The reserve risk is associated with historical years, and the premium risk is associated with the future year(s). The premium risk is calculated over the maximum of the expected earned premium for the next year and the earned premium for the current year. For the calculation of the premium- and reserve risk, several input data and parameters are necessary, as described in the standard model. The geographical spread, when a (re)insurer underwrites products in different countries, is not relevant for a.s.r. non-life as there is no material exposure outside the Netherlands.

Non-life Catastrophe Risk Module

Catastrophe risk is defined as the risk of loss or adverse change in the value of insurance liabilities, resulting from significant uncertainty of pricing and provisioning assumptions related to extreme or exceptional events. The Non-life SCR Catastrophic Risk Module used, consists of natural catastrophe risk (Windstorm and Hail), man-made catastrophe risk (Fire, Motor and Liability) and other Non-life catastrophe risk. The Non-life Catastrophe Risk Module is derived at the level of a legal entity based on the standard model.

Lapse risk

The lapse risk is the loss in basic own funds caused by the discontinuance of 40% of the policies for which discontinuation would result in an increase of technical provisions (without the risk margin). The calculation is based on the type of discontinuance which most negatively affects the basic own funds, which is for Non-life immediately termination of the policy.

The table summarises the required capital for abovementioned Non-life insurance risks based on the standard model.

For the Non-life portfolio, the provision at year-end can be broken down as follows under Solvency II:

7.8.2.2.3Managing Health and Non-life insurance risk

Health and Non-life insurance risk is managed by monitoring claims frequency, the size of claims, inflation, handling time, benefit and claims handling costs, and biometrical risks (disability, recovery, illness, death). Concentration risk also qualifies as an insurance risk.

In recent years, measures have been taken to improve profitability and reduce risk. Examples are: premium increases, stricter acceptance criteria, shorter claims filing terms and making use of the claims reassessment arrangement between the Dutch Association of insurers and social security institute UWV. Effects are being monitored closely and assessed to be effective.

Claims frequency, size of claim and inflation

To mitigate the risk of claims, a.s.r. bases its underwriting policy on claims history and risk models. The policy is applied to each client segment and to each type of activity. In order to limit claims and / or ensure that prices are adjusted correctly, the acceptance policy is continually refined using a number of indicators and statistical analyses. The product lines also use knowledge or expectations with respect to future trends to estimate the frequency, size and inflation of claims. The risk of unexpected major damage claims is contained by policy limits, the concentration of risk management and specific risk transfer contracts (e.g. reinsurance).

Handling time

The time required for handling and settling claims is an important factor. The settlement of claims that have a long handling time, such as liability claims, can take many years. Analyses are performed regularly and based on a.s.r.’s experience in similar cases, historical trends – such as the pattern of liabilities – increases in risk exposure, payment of damages, the scale of current and not yet settled damage claims, court rulings and economic conditions.

Benefit and claims handling costs

Taking estimated future inflation into account, benefit and claims handling costs are managed based on regular reviews and related actions.

Disability risk

Disability risk is controlled by means of regular evaluation of historical claims patterns, expected future developments and price adjustments. Disability risk is mitigated by a.s.r. through underwriting criteria and a proactive reintegration policy. a.s.r. non-life ended the mitigation of its disability risk through reinsurance in 2023. The Individual Health SLT portfolio and a small part (Aegon) of the Group Health SLT portfolio is reinsured by a reinsurance contract. For the a.s.r. part of the portfolio this consists of inactive contracts only, for the Aegon part there is one remaining contract active until 1 January 2026. The reinsuring cash flows concern existing claims and are calculated separately in the cash flows models.

Concentration risk

Geographically, the risk exposure of a.s.r. on its health and Non-life portfolio is almost entirely concentrated in the Netherlands. Concentration of insurance risks is particularly prevalent in the fire risk portfolio (i.e. home and content, with storm and flood risk forming the most important factor). Storm and flood risk is managed by means of suitable reinsurance (see also ‘Reinsurance’).

There is also a concentration of risk in group disability schemes. Group disability contracts are underwritten within the scope of disability cover for employees in the Netherlands (WIA).

Reinsurance

When deemed effective in terms of capital relief versus costs incurred, a.s.r. enters into reinsurance agreements to mitigate Non-life insurance risks. Reinsurance can be taken out for each separate claim (per risk), for the accumulation of claims due to natural disasters or to human actions (per event), or for both these risks.

The level of retention in the various reinsurance contracts is aligned with the size and the risk profile of the underlying portfolios, taking into account of the cost of reinsurance on the one hand, and the risk that is retained on the other.